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And The Nominees Are: 83rd Oscars Edition [DB]

DB is ROTI’s resident Oscars expert, and he is back to analyze the nominees for this year’s ceremony. His wisdom has long been revealed to the lucky recipients of a private email list, but he’ll soon be launching his own blog, which we intend to pimp relentlessly. But for now, he’s here to analyze the nominations with an award junkie’s eye. For reference, here is the Complete List of Nominees.

With the announcement of the Oscar nominations now nearly two weeks past, you’ve obviously been aching with anticipation to hear my thoughts. My apologies for the delay, but I figured it would take this long to read that piece anyway, so I had a little time to play with.

Ready to get back into it?

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This list shaped up pretty much as expected, with 127 Hours muscling in to replace The Town, which I thought would make the cut. I’ve got no problem with that. The Town was a fine movie and another welcome component of the Ben Affleck Career Reboot, but I was surprised it got elevated to the Best Picture conversation in the first place.

Despite the presence of eight other movies, most still see the contest as boiling down to The King’s Speech and The Social Network. Based on recent events, I have to agree. What recent events, you ask? Well, in the Oscar race, things can change awfully fast. And so they have. The first half of the season clearly favored The Social Network, but in the days since the nominations were revealed, the Screen Actors’ Guild honored The King’s Speech with their top prize – for best cast – and the Director’s Guild selected Speech‘s Tom Hooper as Best Director. (I’m having trouble making sense of that one, but I’ll say a bit more below.) Taken individually, neither of these awards necessarily shore up a Best Picture win for The King’s Speech. But taken together – along with a win from the Producer’s Guild – that scenario now looks likely.

I’m about to go off on a tangent here, but longtime readers know this is nothing new. I possess no filter. The day of the nominations, this article appeared on CNN.com and promptly pissed me off. The author, one Lewis Beale, calls The Social Network an “also-ran” behind The King’s Speech and True Grit because Speech led the way with 12 nominations, Grit followed with 10 and Social tied for third with eight. He says the numbers make Speech and Grit the frontrunners.

No, Lewis. No they don’t.


Lewis Beale: also-ran

Speech may well be the frontrunner now, but not because it has the most nominations. And sorry, but Grit isn’t a frontrunner at all. The number of nominations a movie gets has nothing to do with whether it will win Best Picture or whether the Academy thinks it’s the single best movie of the year.

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